Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Give Ron Paul Serious Consideration

As an interested observer of the GOP race I am increasingly warming up to Ron Paul as the anti-establishment candidate. While N.Gingrich stands out as a viable alternative to the current administration the fact is he is a career politician with plenty of "baggage" to haunt him. Though his lower, flat tax proposals have merit it is unclear how far he plans to go to get the budget mess under control and the numbers don't entirely add up. We are racking up over $1 Trillion in deficits per year and Mr. Paul is calling for the same in budget cuts. We must focus first on spending cuts and second on tax reductions. Mr. Paul wants to reduce the power of the Fed and eliminate Bernanke to stop the easy money, stabilize our currency and curb inflation expectations. He recognizes our international power, influence depends first on getting our finances in order. We cannot afford to be the Lone Ranger of the world anymore; defense spending can and must be cut as well as everything else. The federal government is the fast growing gorilla in the room and Ron Paul stands for stopping that growth that is infringing on our freedom.

Revise the System

As we watch the circus now in Washington over the tax cut after the supercommittee fiasco, it further confirms the need to reform the political system we are operating under. The idea being to eliminate the word political. We need civil servants serving relatively short terms of office motivated by doing the right thing to serve the electorate and leaving office with a legacy they can be proud of. Eliminate the career politicians! Strictly limit terms of office. Someone serves 4-6 years and goes back into the private sector.

Those in office must be held accountable. As the law requires passage of an annual budget the leaders in the Senate and House should lose their positions if this doesn't happen or stop salaries of Congress until one is passed. Alternatively, require they stay in session indefinitely until the issue is resolved. The members of the supercommittee should have lost their jobs for not coming up with a proposal.

We must pass a balanced budget amendment with strict rules and implications if not followed. With few exceptions, require the annual budget presented by the President be balanced. We must get the budget under the control and live within our means. As our founders had in mind we need a limited government.

Monday, December 12, 2011

Re-election of President a Scary Thought

While hopeful the citizens of this country will do the right thing next November and elect a new GOP candidate into office by an overwhelming landslide, there are no guarantees in this crazy world. Who would have believed our Congress wouldn't be able to raise the debt ceiling this past summer? Can you believe the Congress hasn't passed a budget in 3 years or so? Can you believe we are taking on $1 Trillion in debt each year and the supercommitte couldn't come up with anything? Can you believe the president put on hold an energy pipeline project that would create jobs and help increase energy supplies? Now, nobody can agree on extending the tax cut. It is so absurd and how frightening it would be if the current administration is voted in for another 4 years.

The budget deficit recently hit $15 trillion, about 25% of it accumulated in the last 4 years. Current projections call for an increase of another $8-10 trillion in the next 10 years! This is unsustainable if you consider compound interest. When will the current rock bottom interest rates here double or triple as they have this year in a number of european countries? Probably in 2013 or 14 interest rates will increase due to this problem in combination with likely inflationary forces. Dramatic action to reduce and quickly eliminate the deficit must be taken by the new administration in 2013 to head off potential disaster. We also need a sound monetary policy to stabilize the currency. Otherwise, this country could sink under the weight of its debt: Further crashes of the financial and housing markets, a weak currency, high inflation, a increasingly socialist economy dependant on the government.
Wake up America! This administration is steering this country off a cliff. Do we want future innocent generations to have to deal with insurmountable debts?  Have the courage and do the right thing. Get the word out that this election is about less government, not more and more freedom not less, capitalism not socialism. This country can be great again by becoming financially responsible.

Tuesday, December 6, 2011

European Debt Crisis Resolution- Doubtful

The financial markets seem to be expecting or at least hoping for some major breakthrough at the end of the week. Don't hold your breath. Might be a good at least short term selling opportunity? Think about what is going on here, seventeen different countries, cultures with differing economies and financial situations. Unfortunately, many of them have large budget deficits and are near or in recession. Some of these countries have imposed austerity taking a severe toll on their citizens. Have you ever tried to get 17 people together and come to a consensus on a major problem? The stronger countries like Germany and France don't want to get stuck with the tab on bailing out the weak countries like Greece, Spain. The Euro currency has been on the slide because the markets question the future of the European union. Are Germany and France going to allow these countries in dire shape to drag down their economies? No. It may be too late to save the Euro!

Monday, December 5, 2011

Privatize USPS & FHA

Both of these organizations have been in the news recently with continuing losses and shortfalls the taxpayer is at risk for. The FHA is similar to Fannie and Freddie; the government should not be involved in insuring mortgages risking potential huge losses on the taxpayer with exposure of more than $1trillion. FHA guaranteed 24% of new morgages in fiscal 2011 ended 9/30 yet its capital reserves are below the 2% mandated by Congress. The USPS does serve an important yet declining function in the modern online world. However, it has the burden of a high cost structure and is inefficient. As with all levels of government, the pay scales and benefit structures are substantially above comparable private sector.  Pensions paid to past postal workers is very costly.The threat of ending Saturday mail has been on the table for months, they are now reducing their labor force and re-routing the mail. The end result is declining quality, speed of mail delivery. My small business felt the brunt of it the last couple days; late or no mail delivered at all. From this perspective; a UPS or FED-EX could much more efficiently incorporate the USPS structure into its operations. Since mail delivery is still essential for many the privatization would have to be handled carefully to make sure mail gets delivered 5 or 6 days per week. Perhaps it could be put out for bid every 4 or 5 years so there is competition. There is a better way!

Thursday, December 1, 2011

Federal Reserve Out Of Control

Yesterday's coordinated effort to rescue Europe and its banks appears to have been engineered by Ben Bernanke. Once again the Lone Ranger,  the US is coming to the rescue. However, what kind of risks are we taking on? Clearly, the most powerful man in the world today is Mr. Bernanke! In the absence of responsible action by Congress and our president he is doing whatever he thinks is necessary to, from his perspective, save the world from going down the toilet. He is shuffling billions perhaps trillions buying and selling various securities apparently all over the world. Additionally he has flooded the markets with cash to keep interest rates low. Does Mr. Bernanke realize what a monster he may be creating that could blow up?
First, the signals the Fed gives provide little or no confidence. In fact inflation is raising its ugly head; oil and gold prices remain stubbornly. Everyone knows inflation is higher than the 2-3% the government reports. Ready for $4-5 gasoline next spring? If our currency keeps falling we will continue to import lots of inflation. The low interest rate policy punishes savers, especially seniors contributing to our weak economy. The Federal Reserves mandate must be limited to controlling inflation and maintaining the value of our currency. Bernanke should not be re-appointed.

Monday, November 28, 2011

Perspective on GOP Candidates

The large number of remaining candidates all have something in common; they all stand out head and shoulders above the current administration. While Michelle Bachman and Rick Santorum both have excellent ideas the reality is neither is likely to go very far. Governors Perry and Huntsman both have experience and positive track records in office. The latter spoke about the need to limit Congressional terms; I agree strongly with that and he had international experience with China, a positive. Mr. Perry has done poorly in the debates yet has some good ideas including plans for energy policy and US becoming self sufficient. Mr. Romney projects as middle of the road and policies are not dramatically different than the current establishment. He talks tough toward China and the need for a strong defense; it seems doubtful he would be willing to cut the defense budget making deficit balancing precarious.

The candidates that offer the largest contrast to the status quo are Paul, Cain and Gingrich. In my view, at this point, Gingrich looks to offer the best chance for dramatic change. He appears extremely knowledgeable, had significant past Congressional experience, success and looks to have the COURAGE and WILL to take on the establishment.

Friday, November 18, 2011

Critical Actions for Economic Growth

1. Elect a new administration in 2012 hopefully by the largest landslide ever. Candidates like Gingrich or Paul with visions of dramatic change, less government and fiscal responsibility are preferred. we need a president with Courage for Change and only motive to do what is right and in the best interest of the country. Hopefully, the electorate will clean house of the members of Congress up for re-election as well.
2. Present a plan to balance the budget within 3 years. Enact a balanced budget amendment to require accountability thereafter. The plan would be to accomplish the balancing with 90% across the board spending cuts. Entitlement reforms including Social Security to be included. As people live longer  a gradually increasing retirement, qualifying age makes sense and is essential. Compensation and benefits of federal government employees must be brought in line with what they are in the private sector. Defense must be a part of the cuts and with proper evaluation and scrutiny we can reduce the costs and maintain strength militarily.
3. Replace our outdated, complex tax system with a flat tax, very simple and fair. Enact a similar Corporate tax structure. Eliminate deductions and loopholes.
4. Replace Mr, Bernanke as Fed. chief. Hopefully, a candidate to focus primarily on controlling inflation and protecting the integrity of the dollar. Tighten up the current loose monetary policy.
5. Phase out Freddie and Fannie within 3 years. Get the government, now controlling 90% of the mortgages, out of the housing & financing business.
6. Freeze all government regulations. Re-evaluate new regulations enacted  during the Obama administration.
7. Cancel Obamacare. Relax the territorial regulations to allow competition across the country, not just by state.
8. Impliment a plan for energy independence. Within this country we have the resources to not have to depend on other countries for the rest of this century and possibly beyond. The problem is all the regulations and laws preventing projects from moving forward for drilling oil and further developing the use of natural gas. This can occur while maintaining the integrity of our environment. Example right now, a pipeline to supply large amounts to our country is being blocked by the administration coincidentally until after 2012. Next year we are likely to see $4.50 to $5 gasoline costs, perhaps much higher in a few years unless action is taken to ENCOURAGE energy development.
9. Constitutional, legal reforms to impose term limits on elected officials, perhaps single, in some cases slightly longer terms. We don't need permanent life long politicians! The idea is they come in with no political motives; their motivation is to do the right thing in the best interest of the country with their legacy judged accordingly. Another idea that may have merit as suggested by R.Perry is part time legislators. Lets get the politics out of the decisionmaking! We also need to enforce the law as to the government passing a budget each year and have negative consequences if not. How about no more paychecks beyond a yearly deadline?
10. Sell surplus assets owned by the US government. I suspect the value of this property amounts to a trillion or more. This could be used to pay down the debt.
11. Re-establish our reputation as a world leader by getting our act together financially and encouraging greater cooperation with other countries to promote trade and work together to address world problems that the US has often had to deal with on its own in the past.

Thursday, November 17, 2011

Replace Our Outdated Tax System

A topic everyone seems to agree at least in principle is our current tax system is complex and unfair. Small businessmen and investors like myself waste countless hours annually preparing their taxes and/or paying accountants to deal with the nightmare. Beyond the complexity is the fact only roughly 53% of citizens pay any income tax. While a case can be made for little or nothing to be paid by the poor, there are many, some quite wealthy, that don't pay their fair share due to many deductions, loopholes and credits.

I support a flat tax in the upper teens that would apply for earned income over a basic exemption per individual or family. Those earning less than the exemption would not owe tax. Everyone beyond the exemption would pay tax, no exceptions. A personal view to spur investment is to exempt investment income such as interest, dividends, and capital gains altogether or apply a lower rate than the tax on earned income.

The corporate tax rate also needs to be lowered to a flat rate also eliminating loophole and deductions. This will allow the US to play on a level playing field with other countries to be more competitive.

Alot of the problems we face today relate to uncertainties over future tax policy. We need a new system that is easy to understand, that encourages capitalism, ingenuity, creativity, and rewards success. the time is right to replace our complex, outdated tax system.

Wednesday, November 16, 2011

As World Leader US Must Be Financially Strong

The perception of the United States has changed for the worse in recent years. The level of respect has declined as we grapple at home with a sluggish economy, a dysfunctional government, swelling debt, and a declining dollar. We still try to be the Lone Ranger to the world. We still wrestle with two unpopular wars that contributed alot to our debt problems. Confirmed today the debt now exceeds $15 TRILLION and 16 coming soon. Our government is out of control with spending; it is like a freight train heading down Mt. Everest. We have the gall to tell the Europeans to solve their debt crisis when ours is nearly as bad!

If we want to retain our position as the leader of the world we need to get our financial house in order fast. Decisive action must be taken by the new administration to balance the budget within 3 years or less and required by amendment to keep it in balance thereafter. Yes, spending must be cut across the board including sacred cows and defense. We can retain a solid defense with less waste and command more respect as we return to a financial position of strength.

Monday, November 14, 2011

Politics is the Problem

We need to re-evaluate a system that allows and promotes professional politicians that become permanent fixtures. Instead of serving the people that elected them their primary thought is do what is necessary to get elected. That is the simple explanation of the dysfunction and gridlock we have witnessed the last few months. Mr Obama and the Congress are primarilly focused on how to get re-elected in 2012. They want status quo and government to continue to grow in sharp contrast to what the people want, less government and positive change. The politicians are going to destroy this country as we run up huge debts that are unsustainable. The system should be changed to limit terms for Senators and representatives and perhaps the President should be limited to one term. This would turn these elected officials into civil servants with sole motive to carry out the will of the people.

Eliminate Fannie & Freddie

Earlier this month both Fannie and Freddie reported huge quarterly losses and asked the government for more $7.6 BILLION for the former and $6 BILLION for the latter. Taxpayer have already forked over $169 BILLION or so with no end in sight. What is really concerning is this didn't get alot of publicity and little discussion about what needs to happen. We have the government basicly controlling 90% of the mortgage market; no wonder we have a housing crisis! A plan to phase out Fannie and Freddie and turn over the mortgage market to the private sector is essential to the recovery of the housing market and to eliminating the ongoing sink holes with Freddie and Fannie. GOP candidates must embrace this plan.

Bernanke's Time Has Passed

While I supported Federal Reserve actions during the 2008-9 financial crisis, the actions ever since have been counterproductive. decisive short term actions to prevent another depression and restore confidence were necessary. As the economy recovered late 2009-10 this short term flood of cash into the system should have gradually been removed and interest rates allowed to slowly return to a more normal level. Instead the Fed has announced additional quantitative easing and is purposely keeping interest rates at artificially low levels.

Negative Implications of Loose Monetary Policy: 1. Puts pressure on the dollar leading to higher import costs on commodities such as oil. No wonder gasoline was near $4 for awhile and in 2012 likely to go alot higher. 2. Higher inflation and inflation expectations. No wonder gold has been rising. Does anybody believe government statistics on inflation? 3. Artificially low interest rates punish savers, especially the elderly reducing income. This is negatively impacting the growth of our economy. 4. There is the potential for an escalation of inflation with all the money floating around should the economy turn around. 5. The Fed's actions continue to raise uncertainty about the health of the economy and if things will ever turn around.

In this view our next president must appoint a new Fed chairman with greater emphasis on fighting inflation.

Friday, October 21, 2011

Dysfunction in Washington DC

The US Congress and administration seem totally out of touch with what the citizens of this country desire: Change- Now. According to a recent poll 74% of Americans think our government is taking us in the wrong direction. The budget deficit is accumulating at over $1 for every $3 spent. The US must start living within its means or it will face the same problem Greece is facing today. We need leadership, courage and the will to find long term solutions to promote economic growth. A large part of the problem is psychological, a lack of confidence in our government and uncertainty about what the future holds. The structure of our government is out of control with "permanent politicians" dragging their feet on action. If we don't have the COURAGE to take drastic action soon to balance the budget, simplify the tax code, relax regulations, encourage investment injust a few years our way of life will face a downward spiral most of us can't imagine.